ART Cohort Collaboration

Risk calculator for HIV positive patients starting antiretroviral therapy

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Please note that this calculator is only applicable to patients who are:

  • HIV-1 positive
  • No previous antiretroviral therapy (ART)
  • Age 16 years or older

There are two risk calculators:

  • risk calculated from start of ART
  • risk calculated from 6 months after start of ART, taking into account initial virological and immunological response

The first calculator estimates the probability of experiencing a new AIDS defining disease or death by the end of 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 years after the patient starts antiretroviral therapy. It also estimates the probability of death from all causes (either HIV or non-HIV related) for up to five years after the start of therapy.

The second calculator estimates the probability of experiencing a new AIDS defining disease or death taking into account the initial response of the patient to ART as measured by their CD4 cell count and HIV-RNA viral load at 6 months after the start of ART. The probabilities are given for 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 years after the time of the 6 month measurements. It also estimates the probability of death from all causes for up to five years after the time of the 6 month measure

Risk calculator from start of ART
Risk calculator from 6 months after start of ART

These models have recently been updated based on recent analyses published in AIDS (AIDS 2007, 21:1185–1197) To use the previous model (prognosis up to 3 years only) click here

For more information on the methods used in the calculations and the limitations on their use, please see the corresponding publications from the ART Cohort Collaboration:

The ART Cohort Collaboration: Prognosis of HIV-1 infected patients up to five years after initiation of HAART: collaborative analysis of prospective studies. AIDS 2007, 21:1185–1197 Writing committee: Margaret May, Jonathan Sterne, Caroline Sabin, Dominique Costagliola, Amy Justice, Rodolphe Thiébaut, John Gill, Andrew Phillips, Peter Reiss, Robert Hogg, Bruno Ledergerber, Antonella D'Arminio Monforte, Norbert Schmeisser, Schlomo Staszewski and Matthias Egger

May M, Royston P, Egger M, Justice AC, Sterne JAC, ART Cohort Collaboration. Development and validation of a prognostic model for survival time data: application to prognosis of HIV positive patients treated with antiretroviral therapy. Stat Med 2003; 23:2375-98

Chene G, Sterne JAC, May M, Costagliola D, Ledergerber B, Phillips AN et al. Prognostic importance of initial response in HIV-1 infected patients starting potent antiretroviral therapy: analysis of prospective studies. Lancet 2003; 362(9385):679-86

Egger M, May M, Chene G, Phillips AN, Ledergerber B, Dabis F et al. Prognosis of HIV-1-infected patients starting highly active antiretroviral therapy: a collaborative analysis of prospective studies. Lancet 2002; 360:119-29 (pdf of paper here)

Last updated 5th June 2007