ART Cohort Collaboration

Risk calculator for HIV positive patients starting antiretroviral therapy

Home
Risk calculator
Collaborating cohorts
Members of the study groups
Steering Committee
Publications
Supplementary material
Collaborators only

 

Please note that this calculator is only applicable to patients who are:

  • HIV-1 positive
  • No previous antiretroviral therapy (ART)
  • Age 16 years or older

There are two risk calculators:

  • risk calculated from start of ART
  • risk calculated from 6 months after start of ART, taking into account initial virological and immunological response

The first calculator estimates the probability of experiencing a new AIDS defining disease or death by the end of 1, 2 or 3 years after the patient starts antiretroviral therapy. It also estimates the probability of death from all causes (either HIV or non-HIV related) for up to three years after the start of therapy.

The second calculator estimates the probability of experiencing a new AIDS defining disease or death taking into account the initial response of the patient to ART as measured by their CD4 cell count and HIV-RNA viral load at 6 months after the start of ART. The probabilities are given for 1, 2 and 3 years after the time of the 6 month measurements. It also estimates the probability of death from all causes for up to three years after the time of the 6 month measure

Risk calculator from start of ART
Risk calculator from 6 months after start of ART

This model has recently been updated. To use the new model, click here

For more information on the methods used in the calculations and the limitations on their use, please see the corresponding publications from the ART Cohort Collaboration:

May M, Royston P, Egger M, Justice AC, Sterne JAC, ART Cohort Collaboration. Development and validation of a prognostic model for survival time data: application to prognosis of HIV positive patients treated with antiretroviral therapy. Stat Med 2003; 23:2375-98

Chene G, Sterne JAC, May M, Costagliola D, Ledergerber B, Phillips AN et al. Prognostic importance of initial response in HIV-1 infected patients starting potent antiretroviral therapy: analysis of prospective studies. Lancet 2003; 362(9385):679-86

Egger M, May M, Chene G, Phillips AN, Ledergerber B, Dabis F et al. Prognosis of HIV-1-infected patients starting highly active antiretroviral therapy: a collaborative analysis of prospective studies. Lancet 2002; 360:119-29 (pdf of paper here)

Last updated 5th June 2007