ART Cohort Collaboration

Risk calculator for HIV positive patients on antiretroviral therapy for 6 months

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Please note that this calculator is only applicable to patients who are:

  • HIV-1 positive
  • No previous antiretroviral therapy (ART)
  • Age 16 years or older
  • Who have been on ART for at least 6 months

It estimates the probability of experiencing a new AIDS defining disease or death taking into account the initial response of the patient to ART as measured by their CD4 cell count and HIV-RNA viral load at 6 months after the start of ART. The probabilities are given for each year up to 5 years after the time of the 6 month measurements. It also estimates the probability of death from all causes (either HIV or non-HIV related) for up to five years after the time of the 6 month measurements. Please note that CDC disease stage is defined by clinical diseases only and not by reference to CD4 cell count. You must enter all five prognostic factors for the calculator to work.

Enter patient's prognostic data at 6 months after starting ART:

Age in years at start of ART: 16 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 or over

6 month CD4 cell count: under 25 25-49 50-99 100-199 200-349 350 or over

6 month HIV-1 RNA copies/ml: under 500 500 to 9,999 10,000 to 99,999 100,000 or over

CDC disease stage: A or B A or B at start of ART and C at 6 months C at start of ART

HIV transmission through injection drug use: yes no


For more information on the methods used in the calculations and the limitations on their use, please see the corresponding publication from the ART Cohort Collaboration:

The ART Cohort Collaboration: Prognosis of HIV-1 infected patients up to five years after initiation of HAART: collaborative analysis of prospective studies. AIDS 2007, 21:1185–1197 Writing committee: Margaret May, Jonathan Sterne, Caroline Sabin, Dominique Costagliola, Amy Justice, Rodolphe Thiébaut, John Gill, Andrew Phillips, Peter Reiss, Robert Hogg, Bruno Ledergerber, Antonella D'Arminio Monforte, Norbert Schmeisser, Schlomo Staszewski and Matthias Egger

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Last updated 5th June 2007