ART Cohort Collaboration

Risk calculator for HIV positive patients starting antiretroviral therapy

Risk calculator
Collaborating cohorts
Members of the study groups
Steering Committee
Supplementary material
Collaborators only


Please note that this calculator is only applicable to patients who are:

  • HIV-1 positive
  • No previous antiretroviral therapy (ART)
  • Age 16 years or older

It estimates the probability of experiencing a new AIDS defining disease or death by the end of each year up to 5 years after the patient starts antiretroviral therapy. It also estimates the probability of death from all causes (either HIV or non-HIV related) for up to five years after the start of therapy. Please note that CDC disease stage is defined by clinical diseases only and not by reference to CD4 cell count. You must enter all five prognostic factors for the calculator to work.

Enter patient's prognostic data at time of starting ART:

Age in years: 16 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 or over

CD4 cell count: under 25 25-49 50-99 100-199 200-349 350 or over

HIV-1 RNA copies/ml: under 100,000 100,000 or over

CDC disease stage: A or B C

HIV transmission through injection drug use: yes no

For more information on the methods used in the calculations and the limitations on their use, please see the corresponding publication from the ART Cohort Collaboration:

The ART Cohort Collaboration: Prognosis of HIV-1 infected patients up to five years after initiation of HAART: collaborative analysis of prospective studies. AIDS 2007, 21:1185–1197 Writing committee: Margaret May, Jonathan Sterne, Caroline Sabin, Dominique Costagliola, Amy Justice, Rodolphe Thiébaut, John Gill, Andrew Phillips, Peter Reiss, Robert Hogg, Bruno Ledergerber, Antonella D'Arminio Monforte, Norbert Schmeisser, Schlomo Staszewski and Matthias Egger

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Last updated 5th June 2007